Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.009550 0.010786 0.012122 0.013675 0.015429 0.017352 0.019620
2025-11-30 0.007712 0.009441 0.011466 0.014017 0.017147 0.020865 0.025625
2025-12-07 0.006345 0.008209 0.010518 0.013590 0.017578 0.022589 0.029381
2025-12-14 0.005462 0.007394 0.009895 0.013378 0.018113 0.024343 0.033190
2025-12-21 0.004727 0.006652 0.009245 0.012998 0.018309 0.025581 0.036337
2025-12-28 0.004403 0.006418 0.009227 0.013441 0.019624 0.028400 0.041866
2026-01-04 0.004078 0.006137 0.009101 0.013693 0.020657 0.030870 0.047081
2026-01-11 0.003820 0.005921 0.009037 0.014009 0.021785 0.033544 0.052803
2026-01-18 0.003494 0.005566 0.008724 0.013907 0.022245 0.035218 0.057095
2026-01-25 0.003230 0.005281 0.008488 0.013891 0.022821 0.037094 0.061838
2026-02-01 0.002954 0.004948 0.008144 0.013663 0.023019 0.038358 0.065655
2026-02-08 0.002776 0.004760 0.008014 0.013770 0.023770 0.040569 0.071226
2026-02-15 0.002563 0.004499 0.007750 0.013636 0.024114 0.042151 0.075908
2026-02-22 0.002450 0.004400 0.007749 0.013958 0.025281 0.045247 0.083553
2026-03-01 0.002227 0.004086 0.007350 0.013533 0.025068 0.045872 0.086734
2026-03-08 0.002060 0.003859 0.007083 0.013322 0.025218 0.047152 0.091220
2026-03-15 0.001885 0.003602 0.006742 0.012944 0.025019 0.047756 0.094445
2026-03-22 0.001836 0.003580 0.006831 0.013385 0.026418 0.051481 0.104084
2026-03-29 0.001766 0.003509 0.006824 0.013636 0.027460 0.054592 0.112752
2026-04-05 0.001708 0.003458 0.006848 0.013951 0.028651 0.058082 0.122486
2026-04-12 0.001607 0.003312 0.006674 0.013848 0.028981 0.059859 0.128778
2026-04-19 0.001523 0.003194 0.006548 0.013833 0.029487 0.062029 0.136084
2026-04-26 0.001424 0.003037 0.006329 0.013605 0.029523 0.063213 0.141332